The first 24 hours of a pump.fun coin, measured 13.4 million times
One in four launches never trades again after its first minute. By four hours it is three in four. What happens to the rest, by the market cap at five minutes.
Quick answer
Of 13,378,522 pump.fun launches measured at five minutes of age, 44.9% had no trade at all in the next 24 hours, 1.78% doubled their five-minute market cap at some point in that day, and 0.14% reached ten times it. The five-minute market cap sorts the rest better than anything else we have: a coin at $10-20K at five minutes doubled 21.0% of the time and was dead 10.1% of the time; a coin under $6K (nine in ten launches) doubled 0.9% of the time and was dead 46.6% of the time. Above $100K at five minutes, 90.2% had already graduated.
Dead by the minute
We take every launch at five fixed ages and ask whether it traded again in the 24 hours after that age. Dead means not one trade, buy or sell, on the curve or the pool.
| age | launches measured | dead in the next 24 h | graduated by then |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 13,560,498 | 25.7% | 0.46% |
| 5 minutes | 13,378,522 | 44.9% | 0.66% |
| 15 minutes | 13,360,271 | 54.6% | 0.83% |
| 1 hour | 13,358,332 | 63.3% | 1.01% |
| 4 hours | 13,357,951 | 74.4% | 1.09% |
A quarter of launches are finished sixty seconds in. By the fourth hour, three in four will never trade again. The graduation column barely moves after the first hour: a coin that is going to graduate has mostly done it by then.
The five-minute market cap
Market cap at five minutes, from the last priced trade at or before that mark, against the day that followed.
| market cap at 5 min | launches | dead next 24 h | graduated by 5 min | doubled within 24 h | closed at or above the 5-min cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $6K | 12,086,251 | 46.6% | 0.03% | 0.9% | 62.9% |
| $6-10K | 892,287 | 34.5% | 0.20% | 6.2% | 43.7% |
| $10-20K | 222,597 | 10.1% | 2.60% | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| $20-50K | 113,102 | 23.4% | 23.37% | 13.3% | 40.1% |
| $50-100K | 34,111 | 52.2% | 69.20% | 7.7% | 62.3% |
| $100K or more | 30,174 | 1.6% | 90.23% | 28.1% | 11.8% |
The under-$6K row is pump.fun: 90.3% of launches, a coin that nobody bought past the deployer, dead or flat. The interesting rows are the narrow ones.
$10-20K at five minutes is the live band. One in five of those coins doubled within the day and only one in ten died, but only 21.1% closed the day at or above where they stood at five minutes: they moved, and mostly down after the move. This is the band /today reports on every day, and the odds there (2x within three hours) are of the same order.
$50-100K at five minutes is a strange shelf: 69.2% had graduated by the five-minute mark, yet 52.2% were dead for the following day. Those are coins bought out to graduation in their first minutes by their own launch group, which then stopped trading. The $100K or more row is the other kind of buyout: 90.2% graduated, 1.6% dead, 28.1% doubled, 11.8% closed at or above. They trade, and they trade down.
Insiders at five minutes
The share of supply held at five minutes by the deployer and the wallets that bought in the first ten seconds.
| insiders' share at 5 min | launches | dead next 24 h | graduated by 5 min | doubled within 24 h | closed at or above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 10% | 12,973,556 | 45.8% | 0.13% | 1.4% | 61.7% |
| 10-30% | 273,687 | 13.2% | 3.45% | 13.4% | 23.8% |
| 30-60% | 54,678 | 14.2% | 16.49% | 14.5% | 28.4% |
| 60% or more | 76,601 | 23.6% | 68.54% | 13.5% | 29.4% |
The same shape as the bundles report: an insider share above 10% means the coin is alive and will move, and it means it closes under its five-minute mark three times out of four. Above 60% it has usually graduated already and the day after is the holders selling.
What we counted
- The tables as of 2026-10-16: 15,392,027 launches from 2025-03-07 to 2026-10-16, built from our archive of every pump.fun trade. A launch is measured at an age only when the archive covers the whole 24 hours after it; 13,378,522 had a five-minute reading.
- Dead: no priced trade, a buy or a sell on the bonding curve or on the coin's migration pool, in the 24 hours after the age.
- Market cap: the curve's virtual reserves (the migration pool's reserves after graduation) times the supply, in USD at that hour's SOL price, from the last trade at or before the mark. A launch whose reading at the age is under $1,000 is left out of the age table.
- Doubled: the highest market cap in the 24 hours after the age was at least twice the market cap at the age. Ten times: at least ten times. A coin that graduated inside the window is measured on the pool after migration.
- Closed at or above: the last market cap of the 24-hour window was at or above the market cap at the age. A dead coin closes where it stood, so it counts as at or above.
- Insiders: the supply held at the age by the deployer and the wallets that bought on the curve in the first ten seconds after the create (their buys less their sells, on the curve and the migration pool).
- A caution on the by-month view: we do not show the dead share by month here. In some months of 2025 it falls below 5%, which we believe is a few wallets buying every launch rather than a market where nothing died; that gets its own report once we have traced the wallets.
Frequently asked questions
What share of pump.fun coins die?
Measured at five minutes of age, 44.9% of launches had no trade at all in the following 24 hours; measured at four hours, 74.4%. Over the first minute alone, 25.7% of launches never traded again.
What are the odds a pump.fun coin does a 2x?
1.78% of launches doubled their five-minute market cap within 24 hours. In the $10-20K band at five minutes the figure is 21.0%; under $6K it is 0.9%.
What are the odds of a 10x?
0.14% of launches measured at five minutes reached ten times their five-minute market cap within 24 hours.
Does graduating mean the coin went up?
Not over the first day. Of coins at $100K or more at five minutes (90.2% of them graduated), 11.8% closed the next 24 hours at or above that mark.
Where do these numbers come from for a coin I am looking at?
GET https://pumpdata.fun/launch/{mint} gives the coin's five-minute reading and how launches that looked the same at the same age went over their next 24 hours; GET https://pumpdata.fun/baserate gives the band odds for any window. $0.005 a call.
Every number here comes straight from the blockchain, the same data behind the paid calls: the calls ($0.005 to $0.01 each, USDC over x402, no account), yesterday's /stats and the daily wire are free.